Gustav's countdown

Gustav expected to make landfall in Morgan City. Galveston TX though Panama City FL could fell the effects. From flooding, winds, surge, waves, and tornadoes.

Tornadoes can happen in Winter time to

For instance.

2/19/1884- The great ENigma Outbreak causes damage across the Ohio Valley and Southeast that we can imagine to this date they cant figure out the exact death toll.

1/18/1996 a polar/arctic front causes a F1 tornado in Paduach devastating a car shop. BIg temp drops occur out ahead of this front and the harsh winter of 95-96 comes back in full force

1/24/1997 the supercell outbreak producing a bunch of tornadoes in Middle TN including an F4 in Murfreesboro TN. Luckily no fatalities occue.

1/17/1999 an extensive tornadic squall line moves across KY/TN producing 4.5 inch hail, 105 mph winds, and tornadoes

1/22/1999 Clarksville TN, West Padauch get hit by tornadoes 1 tornado fat. in Camden TN

1/3/2000 A big time tornado devastates Owensboro KY. Crittenden and Webster county also see f3 tornadoes. Major flash flooding also occurs.

1/23/2002 A big time flash flooding event in Mid TN is preceded by a F2 causing 1 million dollars of damage in the northside of Calhoun KY.

1/2/2006 West KY gets spared but central and east ky received a surprise tornado outbreak. T-storm watches were in effect during this event.

1/29/2008 a more damaging version of 1/18/1996

2/5/2008- Super TUesday 2008 should I say one look back on my Feb archives.

September Events Link

http://travel.ky.gov/tourism/KI.Tourism.CMS.Templates/CalendarResultsPage.aspx?NRMODE=Published&NRNODEGUID=%7bEF06FCA1-145D-402D-89C5-447E2D847C5C%7d&NRORIGINALURL=%2fevents%2fsearchEvents%2ehtm&NRCACHEHINT=Guest

^^ Very nice link for events across west ky^^ (Paduach, Marion, Hopkinsville, Cadiz, Wickliffe area)

http://travel.ky.gov/tourism/KI.Tourism.CMS.Templates/CalendarResultsPage.aspx?NRMODE=Published&NRNODEGUID=%7bEF06FCA1-145D-402D-89C5-447E2D847C5C%7d&NRORIGINALURL=%2fevents%2fsearchEvents%2ehtm&NRCACHEHINT=Guest

^^ Very nice link for events across Evansville Tri State area of West KY (Henderson, Owensboro, Madisonville)

Nov 24th 2001 a tornado hits Calloway county

On the morning of Saturday November 24th 2001 the silent November morning calm before Thanksgiving weekend festivities ensure was broken. Harris Grove in Western Calloway county west of Murray was directly hit by this tornado.

Extensive damage occurred in this tornado over 500 thousand I will post the survey from NWS PAH from this tornado.

A little history on this day ARK and East OK was supposed to have a big tornado outbreak. It did happen with Hunt ARK being devastate by a tornado. After that these storms were supposed to do that in Arkansas the squall line was supposed to form than weaken in West KY.

That didnt happen despite some very crappy instability the wind shear and forcing of cold front led to rotation in the squall line thus leading to a rotating supercell feature in the squall line that produced the tornado in Harris Grove KY. Which caused some extensive damage to homes and moblie homes and carports.

A tornado watch did go in effect a few hours before hand talking about some tornado pot. in supercell features of the squall line.

Survey is here.

000
ABUS34 KPAH 250010
PNSPAH

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
610 PM CST SAT NOV 24 2001

EARLIER TODAY...SATURDAY 24 NOVEMBER 2001...A REPRESENTATIVE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH CONDUCTED A DAMAGE ASSESSMENT SURVEY IN SOUTHWESTERN CALLOWAY COUNTY KENTUCKY. BETWEEN 650 AM AND 700 AM CST THIS SATURDAY MORNING...AN F2 TORNADO CUT A10 MILE LONG PATH FROM RAYBURN ROAD (SOUTHWEST OF HARRIS GROVE)... THROUGH HARRIS GROVE...TO JUST NORTH OF STELLA. FOLLOWING IS A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF THIS WEATHER EVENT WITH DETAILS KNOWN TO US AT THIS TIME. AN ASTERISK (*) INDICATES A REVISION SINCE THE LAST STATEMENT ISSUED AT 250 PM CST...

STORM CATEGORIZATION.... F2 TORNADO
DATE OF OCCURRENCE...... SATURDAY 24 NOVEMBER 2001
TIME OF OCCURRENCE...... 650 AM TO 700 AM CST
COMMUNITIES AFFECTED.... HARRIS GROVE AND STELLA
PATH LENGTH............. 10 MILES
PATH WIDTH.............. UP TO 300 YARDS
HIGHEST WIND ESTIMATE... 120 MPH
*INJURIES................ 6 (2 SERIOUS)
FATALITIES.............. NONE
*DAMAGE.................. ESTIMATED AT $550K

3 HOMES DESTROYED
2 MOBILE HOMES DEMOLISHED
10 BARNS DESTROYED
3 GARAGES DESTROYED
12 HOMES DAMAGED
7 MOBILE HOMES DAMAGED
12 BARNS DAMAGED

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS REGARDING THIS SURVEY...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN PADUCAH KENTUCKY AT 270.744.6440 (X822).
PRESLEY

Weather Undergroud Gustav's path

Low Cape can produce severe 11/7/96

On the day after Obama's great speech and McCain selected Palin as VP I will continue fall severe weather awareness talking about Nov 7th 1996 Low Cape/High Shear event which caused damaging and strong winds along with a series of F-2 tornadoes in Huntland TN in Franklin County.

A powerful polar front charged across Kentucky and TN on the day of November 7th 1996 and collided with a warm air mass with temps well into the mid to upper 60's. Instability wasn't get because of some cloudcover.

The tremedous shear of this November system and also the strong forcing along the Arctic front led to a narrow intense squall line. The shear and forcing allowed a supercell to form in Franklin county with 4 tornadoes touching down including an Ef2 tornado in Huntland TN. Altogether we learn that yes very low CAPE if enough forcing and shear is present can produce severe wx and even tornadoes.

You dont necessary need classic instability just some shear and forcing with a little instability big things can happen.

This line also caused an injury in McEven TN and caused some damage in Cadiz KY.

New ORleans and parts of Miss evacuates

Confidence is increasing that strong winds and flooding could devastate the area so for precaution disaster preparedness is already in full force.

Gustav is a threat

Gustav is expected to become possibly as low as a sub 900 low. This is an extremely powerful low pressure system. In comparsion a 950 would be a Cat 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

So this could be at least a CAT 3 hurricane so anyone on the Gulf needs to watch this system. Like Fay, Gustav may have at least a little impact on weather here in West KY.

Don't forget tomm. we get to talk about fall severe weather.

Gustav is coming towards the Gulf

My Fall Severe wx awareness

FALL SEVERE AWARENESS 2008

FALL SEVERE WEATHER MY OWN AWARENESS WEEK
For Fall 2008 starting early
(Aug 28th-31st)

Aug 28th- October 18th 2007

Aug 29th- November 24th/26th 2001

Aug 30th- November 7th 1996

Aug 31st- Don't forget about Winter (Jan 17th/22nd 1999)

TN flash flood warning

FLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN1254 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2008TNZ009>011-028>034-061>066-075-077>080-095-260200-/O.NEW.KOHX.FF.A.0001.080826T0000Z-080827T1200Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-GILES-1254 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2008...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...BEDFORD...CANNON...CLAY... COFFEE...CUMBERLAND...DEKALB...FENTRESS...GILES...GRUNDY... JACKSON...MACON...MARSHALL...OVERTON...PICKETT...PUTNAM... RUTHERFORD...SMITH...TROUSDALE...VAN BUREN...WARREN...WHITE AND WILSON.* FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING* TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A BROAD AREA. THE CENTER OF FAY SHOULD TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND THROUGH THE MIDSTATE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AHEAD OF THE STORM SHOULD RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES TOTAL BY 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.* WITH RAINFALL TOTALS AS HIGH AS 5 INCHES, WE EXPECT SOME STREAMS AND CREEKS TO RISE TO NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL ON TUESDAY. LOW AREAS AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO FLOOD. MOST FLASH FLOODING WILL BE CAUSED BY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONCENTRATE RAINFALL IN RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN STEEP TERRAIN AND URBAN AREAS.A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEADTO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.THOSE ALONG STREAM AND CREEKS SHOULD MONITOR FOR RAPID RISESAND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION. YOU SHOULD ALSO MONITOR LATERFORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOODWARNINGS BE ISSUED.$$JLM

Farmers Almanic Link

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/a/could-this-winters-weather-add-to-economic-woes

A good link for old time Farmers Almanac always interesting.

Just take a look at what it says for West KY.

Fay could give West Ky some rain

Fay is giving some areas like Paduach and Marion KY some rain today.

Fay is expected to interact with a cold front to our north to give us some rain from tonight thru as late as Wednesday.

No severe wx or widespread flooding is expected. but local amounts of moderate to heavy rain is possible across West KY.

Fay's Rain

Wow a major flooding event to our south from MS to AL def from Jackson to Birmingham to Atlanta south 9 to 21 inches of rain is expected. Tropical Storm Fay has made 4 landfalls in Florida the latest at 2am at Panhandle of Florida. This slow tropical storm has produced up to 32 inches of rain in some areas of Central Florida. Fay may or may not impact west ky significantly. Should provide some afternoon thunderstorms from it's moisture. A cold front coming through Monday should increase our rain chances somewhat.

Fay is soaking Florida

Fay is causing widespread rain for up to 5 days.

Upwards to 10 inches has fallen across parts of the sunshine state. SIg. flooding is occured. Flood threat is predicted to move westard and northward.

It is very uncertain on how Fay will affect West KY or if it will effect us at all.

SLight chance of showers/thuderstorms

WIth gulf moisture increasing showrs and thunderstorms may form all the way thru next week.

Chances are 20-30% so very hit and miss type event expected.

Navigation Issues along Ohio River

Navigation is a issue due to the flooding this spring and dryness of August. Esp sig. in the Smithland and Uniontown KY areas of Ohio River.

Ohio River at Smithland was briefly closed because of this. Now everyone is open US Coast Guard is warning of locally hazardous conditions due to low water.

Duration of flooding helped build up slit and mud leading to a process of shoaling that really lowered the water level.

The PAH link is here

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=pah&storyid=17509&source=0

Tropical Storm Fay the 65MPH storm path

It appears that West KY shouldn't get any moisture from FAY. It will move up the Florida peninsula and cause mostly flooding, rip current risk, and isolated spinups that could lead to Ef0 to Ef2 tornadoes.

FAYS LEgacy

Starting in CUba as Tropical Depression Fay devastate parts of Great Antilles. Went into Bahamas.

Its impact is isolated tornadoes and flooding in Florida.

Winter Overview: Warning- Extreme Winter Weather Addict Present

Ok it is that time of year. No not talking about the dead of August or summertime. Talking about the time all the winter weather lovers get impatient and start throwing out their outlooks.

While I won't go into a final outlook or forecast of winter some things are pointing to a winter that will be well "interesting"

My few thoughts- (Not what 100% happen but just my thoughts mostly based on climatology)

* Climate wise when you experience a Strong La Nina even though the ENSO is neutral the effects of La Nina can still be in effect. PDO which is Pacific Oscillation being cooler could suggest la nina possibly. I wouldn't want to call this winter an El Nino I could be wrong but I don;t see us going El Nino. Right now I'm leaning towards neutral or Weak to MDT la Nina event. It won't be as strong as last or leading la nina of last winter. Although at times this winter I feel well have some slimarties to last winter and be pretty active in several weather events it shouldn't be
nearly as intense as 2007-2008 or 1998-99.

* The increase of Arctic Air in the Middle of Summer, and the fact that several areas in Alaska had record cold. Top 10 coolest in Anchorage Alaska last July. We already have Arctic Air gathering in the Arctic and should continue to do so. This could, along with long term models (although not always accurate) signal negative NAO and a Negative AO. This means more Arctic/polar outbreaks and the potential for Nor' Easters and App. Runner systems that could produce winter storms.

* Also since the decrease in Sunspots should play a role in a cooler winter. Even in last years strong la nina setting we had an average temp winter when we were expected to be above average. More studies are being done to see how lack of sunspots effects our winter weather and our global temperature.

- Also maybe we can turn the tide this winter and last winter to maybe a pattern that provides more cold and snow instead of warm winters. I think if this winter is colder or warmer it will have a lot of effect on the Global Warming debate going on to.

With those points to think about it might be wish casting and from view of a snow lover but interesting points on why we might have a snowy winter.

Some possible analogs of this winter I think might have slimar aspects to what we could face this winter. I will def. check these out more
- 1950/51
- 1951/52 ( mentioned on Talkweather) Do more research)
- 1976-77 ( mentioned on Talkweather) This is a good winter it could be a great analog)
- 1989-90
- 2000-01
- 2004-05

These seem to all be decent analogs some way or another. I will update this in September.

Right now I will say. Above Average Snow, Average Temps so far this winter for now.

Full Winter Weather Forecast for West KY
COmes out on here
10/21/08
-

WINTER WEATHER TERMS(wikipedia/dictionary/noaa source)

Evaporative cooling- A process in which an evaporting liquid cools a object or liquid that comes in contact with it. The diff between dry bulb and wet bulb temparture determines the pot. of Evaporative cooling.

Wetbulbing- Wetblub is what the temperture would be if the atmosphere was completly saturated. It takes Evaporative Cooling for this process to take place It takes 100% relative humidtiy to take full effect. "I believe you take 1/3 of the dew point depression and subtract it from the current temp." From Clay MTWC on TN Weather Zone"

That is right good link about wetbulbing here. http://www.ktbb.com/news/View.php?ArticleID=12354

The Dew Point Depression is temp - dew point with 70 Temp and 60 DP the Dew Point Depression is 10.

Example problem: Temp 35 and the Dew Point is 17. Dew Point Depression is 35-17=18. You take 1/3 of 18. Which is 6. You subtract 6 from the current temp of 35. To get the Wetbulb temp. of 29 if the atmosphere was 100% saturated.

Warm Air Advection- Transport of Warm Air by horizontal winds.

Dynamic Cooling- Cooling that results from decreasing pressure also called Adiabetic Cooling

Dynamic Warming- Warming that results from increasing pressure also called Adiabetic Warming

Wind Chill Factor- What the temparture fells like when an increased wind is felt on exposed skin. In West KY wind Chill values below -10 are Wind Chill Advisory range, and Wind Chill -25 are warning and life threating range.

Snow- Ice Crystals that fall to the surface. Fall as soft mutiple flakes all of different shapes and sizes. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow

METAR- An international code (Aviation Routine Weather Report) used for reporting, recording and transmitting weather observations from NOAA

Sleet- Falling Ice Pellets and bounce when they hit the ground but dont freeze as a mass unless mixed with freezing rain. Occurs as snowfalkes melt or partially melt as they enter the warm layer of mid atmosphere to freeze again closer to the surface: link http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_pellets

SN- METAR code for Snow

FZRA- METAR code Freezing Rain

PL- METAR code for ice pellets also known as sleet

Freezing Rain- Snow that melts in warm layer in most of the lower and mid layers of atmosphere. Than despite falling as rain refreezing on surfaces when they are 32 degrees or below at the surface. Can cause very damaging ice acculmations that can make travel impossible, knock out power to thousands and cause tremendous tree and wildlife damage, and cause serious injury and death due to slips, falls, and traffic accidents. Considered the worst type of winter precip.

Freezing Point- In F it is 32F degrees. In C it is 0C degrees. In Kelvin it is 273.15K Degrees

Nor Easter- A nor'easter (also northeaster; see below) is a macro-scale storm along the East Coast of the United States "From Wikipedia"

Applachin Runner- A strong low pressure system that runs up the Applachin Mountain Chain. Sometimes these in very rare cases might be almost as strong as Nor Easters.

Lakes Cutter- These are systems that form in the midwest but take a strong negative tilt towards the Great Lakes this are ideal Midwest storms, but can lead to warmth and rain in Eastern US

Alberta Clipper- An Alberta clipper (also known as a Canadian Clipper) is a fast moving low pressure area "from Wikipedia" Mostly effects Canada and Upper midwest rarely KY and TN but it does happen.

Manitoba Maulers and Saskatchewan Screamers are same as Clippers except they come from thier respected Canadian provinces

QBO- (WIKIPEDIA DEFINATION) Quasi-Biennial is a quasi-periodic oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere with a mean period of 28 to 29 months. The alternating wind regimes develop at the top of the lower stratosphere and propagate downwards at about 1 km per month until they are dissipated at the tropical tropopause. Downward motion of the easterlies is usually more irregular than that of the westerlies. The amplitude of the easterly phase is about twice as strong as that of the westerly phase. At the top of the vertical QBO domain, easterlies dominate, while at the bottom, westerlies are more likely to be found.

PDO- Pacific Decadal Oscillation is a pattern of Pacfic climate varibity that shifts about 20 to 30 years. A warm or postive phase the West Pacific cools and East Warms. In a cool or negative phase the East Pacific Cools and West Pacific warms. The interdecadal Oscillation effects the north and south Pacific slimar to ENSo except in 20 to 30 year patterns.

ENSO- Also known as El Nino warming in the East Pacfic which means in Spanish Christ Child or Little Boy. La Nina is cooling of Pacfic. El Nino can if strong enough effect the whole Oscillation cycle and is being directly linked to several events. Linking one event to El Nino or La Nina isn't neccasary an accurate conculsion.

AO- Arctic Oscillation (WIKIPEDIA DEFINATION) is the dominant pattern of non-seasonal sea-level pressure (SLP) variations north of 20N, and it is characterized by SLP anomalies of one sign in the Arctic and anomalies of opposite sign centered about 37-45N. The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is a close relative of the AO and there exist arguments about whether one or the other is more fundamentally representative of the atmosphere's dynamics
NAO- North Atlantic Oscillation(WIKIPEDIA DEFINATION) is a climatic phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores high. Through east-west rocking motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores high, it controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. It is highly correlated with the Arctic oscillation, as it is a part of it.

MJO- Madden-Julian Oscillation (WIKIPEDIA DEFINATION) is an equatorial traveling pattern of anomalous rainfall that is planetary in scale

Blizzard- the National Weather Service defines a blizzard as sustained 35 mph (56 km/h) winds which leads to blowing snow and causes visibilities of ¼ mile or less, lasting for at least 3 hours.

Severe Blizzard- The National Weather Service defines a "severe blizzard" as a storm with winds of 45 miles per hour or greater; a great density of falling or blowing snow; and temperatures of 10 degrees or less.

Ice Storm- In Kentucky and Tennessee the defintion of a ice storm is 1/4 inch or more of ice glaze from one storm

Wintry Mix- Anytime more than one form of wintry precipation falls in one storm or round


Winter Storm- NWS Defination This term may refer to a combination of winter precipitation, including snow, sleet, freezing rain, etc.

Heavy Snow- (Kentucky and TN defination both diff.) The definition of heavy snow in Kentucky is 4" or more in 12 hours, or 6" or more in 24 hours. In TN the definition of heavy snow is 3" or more in 12 hours, or 5" or more in 24 hours.

Overrunning Pattern- Usually when a layer of warm air trys to ride retrating cold air. Or when a relativly warm air mass rides over a denser air mass at the surface

Arctic Front- Seprates Arctic from Polar Air masses and is coldest air mass.

Polar Front- Seprates Polar air masses from Temparture. Sometimes by mistake these can be called arctic fronts.

Snow to Rain ratio- How much rainwater can be taken from the fallen snowcover. One inch of rain is

Snow Cover- How much snow has fallen and accumalated to cover the ground.

Blowing/Drifting Snow- Snow that gets blown around by the wind. Sometimes in snowstorms when strong wind acts on snow it can blow it into a mound called a snowdrift. This usually occurs on the windward side of the object. In extreme cases this can cause a whiteout in which ground,air,line of sight is all a big white mass due to blowing intense snow in a blizzard.

Wind Chill Formula- Wind Chill(F) = 35.74 + 0.6215T- 35.75(V^0.16)+ 0.4275T(V^0.16) ^exponent

F and C Formula- F = C × 9⁄5 + 32 - From Celsius C = (F− 32) × 5⁄9 - TO Celsius

Black Ice- Frozen Ice with limited air particles trapped in it making it transparent. A sig. hazard to drivers, pedristians, and sailors.

Degree Day- Encarta Defination "Degree-Day, unit used in estimating heat requirements in buildings and fuel costs. The degree-day is based on the Fahrenheit temperature scale and is essentially a measurement of the difference between a standard indoor temperature and the (lower) outside temperature. One degree-day corresponds to a difference of 1° F between the outside mean temperature and a given reference temperature, which is taken as 65° F for heating calculations. Hence, one winter day with a minimum temperature of 30° F and a maximum temperature of 50° F, or a mean temperature of 40° F, would count as 25 degree-days." MSN Encarta

Frost- This is frozen dew on surface of grass. Grass and Car surfaces are cooler than water and collect ice above freezing. Frost can occur in temps as high as 37 and 38. If a freeze isnt likely but temps hover at 32-37 range a Frost Advisory might need to be issued.

Freeze- When the low temp is expected to hit 32 or below. Freeze Warnings are issued at the end of growing season or for freezes during growing season. Average Freeze in KY and TN runs from Oct 10th-30th depending on elevation and how far north or south you are.

Hard Freeze- By NWS defination 4 or more hours of temps 26 or below signals the end of growing season.

Winter Weather Advisory (includes snow adviosrys, freezing rain advisory, and winter weather, snow and blowing snow, and blowing snow advisorys) NWS DEF: Issued for winter precipitation that is not expected to produce significant risks to life and/or property, but that could still impact travel or other activities. Advisories are issued for a variety of winter weather conditions.

Winter Storm Watch- NWS DEF: Issued when significant winter precipitation is possible in the 24 to 48 hours. Again, a watch does not mean its a sure thing, but is designed to alert you to the fact that hazardous winter weather could occur. Watches are issued for winter storms, heavy snow or blizzards

Winter Storm Warning ( inculdes ice storm, heavy snow, winter storm warnings)- NWS DEF: Issued when winter precipitation that could lead to a threat to life or property is expected. A warning is the most serious of the winter weather messages and indicates that action should be taken immediately to get ready for the storm. Warnings are issued for winter storms, ice storms, heavy snow, blizzards and heavy sleet.

Blizzard Warning- See Blizzard. Very rare warning for KY and TN when blizzard conditions are expected with near 100% confidence.

Polar Jet- The Jet that exists in the Polar Region. When it dips down into the US strong storms and Arctic Cold/Polar Fronts can form bringing arctic outbreaks, winter storms, damaging wind and tornado outbreaks.

Subtropical Jet- The jet that typically moves across the Deep SOuth and Gulf. Responisible for GUlf Storms that during winter can produce winter storms.

NOAA's SNow Terms

Snow Flurries
Snow flurries are an intermittent light snowfall of short duration (generally light snow showers) with no measurable accumulation (trace category).


Snow Shower
A snow shower is a short duration of moderate snowfall. Some accumulation is possible.

Snow Squall
A snow squall is an intense, but limited duration, period of moderate to heavy snowfall, accompanied by strong, gusty surface winds and possibly lightning (generally moderate to heavy snow showers). Snow accumulation may be significant.

Winter Posts Later today/tonight

By 4PM tonight the my first WInter Outlook will be posted along with some winter weather glossary terms so be on the lookout for that.

There is a 20-30% chance of a spotty shower or thundershower in West KY today.

Post 301- Area Code (Cooler Weather) Result I Like

Temps as low as 56 in Henderson and 59-60 in Hopkinsville are tonights lows. A little humidity increase but temps stay in the mid to upper 80's so it will be average to slightly below average for awhile.

Nice Weather Update

Enjoy this nice weather with temps in the mid 80's across West KY and clear skies. Compared to last August it is so beautiful outside. About the best type of weather that one can ask for.

Slight Risk of Severe today

Some storms later today and tonight could produce wind and hail from a cluster. Cloudcover this morning is making the threat very uncertain.

T-storm Watch for Henderson/Daviess counties till 10PM

Damaging winds and large hail are possible in the watch area which includes Henderson and Owensboro Thur 10 pm.

Slight Risk extended today to Us 68

The farther southward movement of the trough. Plus outflow boundaries developing in Southern Indiana has shifted the slight risk all the way south to US road 68.

30% hail and wind props into Northwest Kentucky.

A cluster of thunderstorms is expected to form in West KY later today and tonight. These storms could produce damaging winds in excess of 70MPH and large hail up to quarter sized in strongest storms a strong MCS/poss Derecho is possible tonight.

Tomorrow it now appears that KY/TN border counties will have biggest threat with all of west KY in slight risk. Same threat as today.

Isolated spinups cant be ruled out on both days.

Storms after heat

Humidity and Heat is making things feel awful. The Slight Risk today has shifted south to include parts of Union, Henderson, and Daviess Counties in West KY including the cities of Henderson and Owensboro. A decent chance of rain is possible across most all of West KY later this afternoon and evening with the possible complex that could clip at least Northwest Kentucky later on.

Tomorrow the boundary and trough doesn't move too much. Leaving us very unstable with very high CAPE Values if we can clear out from tonight's mess. The possibly of large hail/ gusty winds followed by a MCS or possible Derecho even is possible sometime tomorrow afternoon or evening.

I continue to update and watch this situation.

I will also be updating some links to today.

Don't forget to vote if you havent already on the poll at the bottom. On what you think about tornado chances in West KY during our second season.

All the Kings Men

Landfall has been made in Upper Texas Coast by Tropical Storm Edouard. This occurred near Anahuac area of Upper Texas Coast just west of Beaumont and Port Arthur.

Surge, Waves up to 12 FT, Wind gusts of 50-60MPH, some power outages, heavy rain/flooding, and brief tornado spin ups are possible with the Edouards landing.

Heat Today, Severe tomm.

A Heat Advisory is in effect for West KY from 1PM to 8PM today. Temps are forecasted to be in the 96-98 degree range. Heat Index values will hover around 105 degrees.

There is some relief on the way. That means a cold front and a pretty strong trough for this time of year. This means that instability and dynamics could be favorable for a severe event that could possibly be widespread tomm Wednesday August 6th.

More details on that though wind and hail are possible.

Severe possible for kiddos to start school

Yeap school starting time. Glad i'm done with high school and K-12. This will be the first ever time of year in August I don't have to strap on a book bag, make sure my pencils and paper are in there, first time we don't have to worry about catching a yellow bus, first time in my life except for when i was a very tiny one I don't have to go to public school. I will be doing some of this later on in College over at HCC Hopkinsville Community College later, but not on the 6th.

The weather could be rocky as a pretty powerful trough for this time of year settles into the area. Which should help relief us from that wicked heat and humidity and gives us some temporary relief. What it could also bring for us is a unseasonably strong storms.

The setup is quite uncertain and could go on into Thursday to. So watch out for it right now a cold pool situation could setup mainly large hail and damaging winds that may be widespread if they can form into a complex.

Edouard Monarchy

From NHC. Tropical Storm Edouard has formed. This will need to be watched besides being a respectable tropical storm. It may help drought relief in Austin/ San Antonio area if it can bring enough rain.

Hot call Communication Hot Call

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY152 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

ILZ080-084-085-088>090-092>094-KYZ001>009-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114-040300-/O.NEW.KPAH.HT.Y.0003.080804T1700Z-080804T2300Z/PERRY IL-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PINCKNEYVILLE...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...CAIRO...MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...HICKMAN...CLINTON...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...MURRAY...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID152 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM CDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A HEATADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM CDT MONDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL APPROACH 105 DEGREES INPORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WEST KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHERNILLINOIS...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 90S. THE HIGHESTHEAT INDEX VALUES WILL OCCUR IN LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF THEMISSISSIPPI RIVER.

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES ISEXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITYWILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES AREPOSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VERY YOUNG AND ELDERLY. DRINK PLENTYOF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THESUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.
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JP

Heat Advisory now in effect for parts of West KY

NWS office of Paducah has just issued a Heat Advisory for parts of West Kentucky. Including Hopkinsville, Mayfield, Murray, and Paducah areas. Temps are already into the 90's with heat indices expected to approach 105.

Stay in air conditioned area as much as possible. If you have to be outside take frequent breaks and drink plenty of water.

A small dot of a chance

A small chance of thunderstorms is possible in Henderson and Owensboro.

I don't really expect anything due to capping and lack of dynamics.

A t-storm is watch for Henderson and Daviess counties including the cities of Henderson and Owensboro just in case till midnight

Hot Dayz ahead

Temperatures with a ridge of high pressure and enough gulf moisture coming in to get the dewpoints up but not cause sig. precip. These temps will range from 93-95 tomm in west ky. Mon thru Wed temperatures 95-98 and when you factor in the humidity and dewpoints going into the 70-76 range you have a possible heat disaster and dangerous heat conditions.

Heat Indices of 105 to 111. ANd constant Heat Advisories seem likely esp Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday