Friday, December 31, 2010

Top 10 Events for the West KY/Middle TN area.

TOP 10 Weather Events!!(For West KY,South Central KY,Middle TN) 2010 was the year for those who love variety in their weather. January, February, and December were well below average, and featured winter storms. June, July, August were months, that featured at times endless heat. There was an historic flood event, along with a drought. Tornadoes weren't as prolific as previous years, and there were pretty much 3 severe wx events, along with a few minor ones. The number 1 event was easy to pick out. Sources used are personal experiences, NCDC, News Outlets in the area, NWS Summaries.

1) Early May Historic Flooding, and Tornado Outbreak- Historic Flooding occurred, both flash flooding, and rivers and streams. Widespread heavy rains started on the evening of the 30th, and didn't move out to the 2nd of May. 10 to 19 inches of rain fell across South Central Kentucky and Middle Tennessee. Nashville had over 1.5 billion dollars of damage alone, along with 12 fatalities in this event in Nashville alone. The Cumberland River crested at record level in Clarksville, causing damage in the riverfront area, Perry County was at one time 40% under water, Hickman County was stranded from the outside world due to the severe flooding. Also severe flooding occurred in the Lakes area of Western KY, as dams released due to the pressure from swollen rivers in Middle Tennessee. Also tornadoes several occurring in the areas with the worst flooding, formed on the early morning of May 1st, a few during the day of May 1st, but most after midnight on May 2nd. 12 tornadoes occurred in this outbreak, Including an Ef2 tornado in Hard Hit Hickman County, in the Coble TN area. EF2 Tornadoes also occurred in Hickman/Fulton counties, and in North Christian counties. An EF1 tornado caused 950K dollars of damage in the Rivergate area of Davidson/Sumner County. Many Middle Tennessee counties, and even some Western and South Central Kentucky counties were declared disaster areas, and could receive possible federal funding.

2) Summer Heat Wave- The opposite of the winter months, was the excessive heat. Heat picked up in Late June, and stayed from July, before the peak in Early August. In which temperatures jumped well into the triple digits, with dewpoints in the 75 to 80 range, producing Heat Index values of 110 to 120 degrees. All 3 months were well above average, and the Summer of 2010 was ranked as the 1st to 3rd warmest summer on record, depending on the station.

3) August 18th-19th Cumberland Plateau/Mid TN Flooding- Flooding returned to the Middle Tennessee landscape in August of 2010. With another downpour again, but this time Mid TN was prepared, as no fatalities occurred. 5 to 8 inches of rain fall, with over 13 inches in Putnam County. Over 50 million dollars of damage occurred in the area, and for Eastern areas it was almost as bad, if not worse than the May event. Structures, roads, homes, were all heavily damaged in the worst areas.

4) January 29th-30th Winter Storm- A Potent Winter Storm struck Western Kentucky, and Middle Tennessee during the day of the 29th, and into the 30th. In Western and South Central Kentucky an upper level system moved through and dumped 4 to 6 inches of heavy snow in the area. 1 foot drifts occurred in Hopkinsville. In Middle Tennessee the Plateau and Northern Mid TN reported anywhere from 3 to 10 inches of snow, in Southwest, and Southern Middle TN, Ice and Sleet mixed in, with up to an 1/2 inch of ice, on top of 1 to 5 inches of snow and sleet reported. This was a very disruptive storm, as hundred of accidents occurred in the region

5) February 8th-9th Winter Storm- The city of Hopkinsville called it one of the prettiest snows ever. This was a storm that wasn't supposed to happen, but the cold air hung out enough for a all snow event in Western Kentucky, and a good snow event in South Central KY, and Middle TN before a change to rain. Western Mid TN, and Western Kentucky received from 3 to 8 inches of wet snow. Areas south and east of Nashville, and Nashville itself managed at least an inch of snow, before a change to rain. The cold weather that followed, allowed the snow to stay on the ground for over a week in most areas.

6) Drought 2010- After the wet May, things dried out considerably in June-September. Moderate to Extreme Drought resulted in crop damages, and a very dry Summer and Fall. Wildfires, Blowing Dust, low ponds, all occurred in this dry period.

7) October 26th Wind Storm- A sub 960 mb, system almost as strong as a CAT 3 hurricane formed in the Plains and exploded across Minnesota. A Serial Derecho also appeared across the area starting in West KY around 7am, and the line, and supercells that formed out ahead of it cleared out by 4pm. Several reports of funnel Clouds occurred, along with a few tornadoes. 4 tornadoes occurred in Christian,Todd,Muhlenberg County, including an Ef-1 tornado that caused some damage in the north side of Hopkinsville KY. Non-Thunderstorms up to 50MPH occurred as well, the Marshall County EM office, reported power-outages with the Non-Thuderstorm winds. An EF1 tornado occurred in Moore County TN on the 24th, just before this storm.

8) December 12th-13th 2010 Snow Storm- A nice December snow began on this day. 1 to 4 inches fall across most of Middle TN/Western Kentucky. This was somewhat of a rare event, being a NW Flow/Wraparound snow event. The Cumberland Plateau cashed in greatly from this event, getting anywhere from 4 to 8 inches of snow, Jamestown TN was the winner, the city the sits on top of the Northern Cumberland Plateau received a foot of snow, with snow drifts 6 feet deep.

9) April 24th Storms- A line of storms, and a few supercell produced severe weather across the area. An Ef-1 Tornado was the biggest storm of the day in Parsons TN(Decatur County). Also 2 injuries occurred in Northeast Montgomery County due to a microburst. 3 tornadoes occurred in Middle TN, and 1 in Western Kentucky on this day.

10) White Christmas 2010- The whole area of Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee received a White Christmas, that brought out memories of the old days, as a half inch to 7 inches fall from a snow event that started the night of Christmas Eve, and for the Plateau area of Middle Tennessee continued until the 26th, as a Upper Level system, combined with a gulf low turned nor'easter made for a white and snowy Christmas Holiday.

The Severe Threat is over, but locally heavy rain and lightning are still threats.

Happy New Year.

New Years Update

Tornado Watch #770

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0770.html

770 Watch for McCracken, Fulton, Carlisle, Hickman, Ballard counties till 7pm.

New Years Dash

Severe storms are possible, timing should be around 3ish around the Miss. River, and the threat should be over for West KY, and West Mid TN by the time the ball drops for 2011.

Possible Tornado Watch

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2165.html

A Tornado Watch is coming for the Jackson Purchase area of Western Kentucky.

New Years overview

Thursday, December 30, 2010

New Years outlook

For New Years: Cloudy today, with temperatures from 48 to 50 across West KY. New Years eve to see temps. rise to the 60's even flirt with 70 in SW Mid TN.


Rain and even some thunderstorms could fire New Years Eve night, as everyone is celebrating. These storms will probably not be severe, but some of the strongest storms could contain some dangerous lightning, and locally heavy rains. Temperatures cool down as we go into New Years Day, and fall to average.

Sunday, December 26, 2010

Minor Snow Accumulations and Slow Traffic

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ012&warncounty=KYC221&firewxzone=KYZ012&local_place1=9+Miles+SW+Cadiz+KY&product1=Special+Weather+Statement
Minor Snow Accumulations and slow traffic across parts of West KY today.

Some potential for a dusting to 3/4 inch of snow in strongest bands today.

Saturday, December 25, 2010

Merry Christmas


Click to enlarge this picture.

Merry Merry Christmas

Merry Christmas Western Kentucky, for those dreaming of a White Christmas, it is not a dream it, is a reality.

So say hello to the first White Christmas since 2004, and Merry Merry Christmas :)

Snow Amounts across PAH County Warning area

000
NWUS53 KPAH 251055
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
455 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0423 PM SNOW MOUNT ERIE 38.51N 88.23W
12/24/2010 M2.5 INCH WAYNE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW BEGAN AT NOON WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL AT TIME OF
OBSERVATION.

0428 PM SNOW DEXTER 36.79N 89.96W
12/24/2010 M0.2 INCH STODDARD MO TRAINED SPOTTER

ROADS COVERED WITH SLEET AND SNOW AND ARE BECOMING SLICK.


0536 PM SNOW MOUNT CARMEL 38.42N 87.77W
12/24/2010 M2.2 INCH WABASH IL TRAINED SPOTTER

0536 PM SLEET 10 S POPLAR BLUFF 36.62N 90.41W
12/24/2010 E0.00 INCH BUTLER MO TRAINED SPOTTER

SLICK COATING ON CARS AND GRASS.

0638 PM SNOW NEWBURGH 37.95N 87.40W
12/24/2010 M1.3 INCH WARRICK IN TRAINED SPOTTER

STREETS IN NEWBURGH WERE SNOW COVERD AND SLUSHY...MAKING
THEM SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. THIS INCLUDED ROUTES 261, OUTER
LINCOLN, HIGHWAY 662 AND SECONDARY STREETS IN TOWN AND
SURROUDING SUBDIVISIONS.

0652 PM SNOW BEECH CREEK 37.18N 87.06W
12/24/2010 M3.2 INCH MUHLENBERG KY TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL VEHICLES STUCK ON HILLS AND SOME VEHICLES RUNNING
OFF ROADS.

0659 PM FREEZING RAIN 7 NW POPLAR BLUFF 36.84N 90.50W
12/24/2010 E0.00 INCH BUTLER MO TRAINED SPOTTER

FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED WITH OCCASIONAL VERY LIGHT SNOW.
DECKS GLAZED OVER. SOME ICE SPOTS ON ROADS. DUSTING OF
SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW IN POPLAR BLUFF.

0903 PM SNOW SESSER 38.09N 89.05W
12/24/2010 M5.0 INCH FRANKLIN IL TRAINED SPOTTER

1026 PM SNOW HOPKINSVILLE 36.85N 87.49W
12/24/2010 M3.5 INCH CHRISTIAN KY TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW STILL FALLING AND ROADS ARE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS.

1030 PM SNOW CARRIER MILLS 37.69N 88.63W
12/24/2010 M2.1 INCH SALINE IL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

REPORT FROM SALINE COUNTY E-911.

1030 PM SNOW HARRISBURG 37.74N 88.55W
12/24/2010 M2.2 INCH SALINE IL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

REPORT FROM SALINE COUNTY E-911.

1036 PM SNOW 5 SE BENTON 37.05N 89.50W
12/24/2010 M1.0 INCH SCOTT MO TRAINED SPOTTER

1050 PM SNOW FORT BRANCH 38.25N 87.57W
12/24/2010 M3.0 INCH GIBSON IN TRAINED SPOTTER

APPROXIMATELY 1.4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FELL IN THE LAST TWO
HOURS.

1104 PM SNOW 8 SE GREENVILLE 37.12N 87.08W
12/24/2010 M4.5 INCH MUHLENBERG KY TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOWFALL REPORT LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF PENROD KENTUCKY.

1112 PM SNOW KEVIL 37.08N 88.89W
12/24/2010 M3.0 INCH BALLARD KY NWS EMPLOYEE

REPORT FROM OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE.

1116 PM SNOW GRACEY 36.88N 87.66W
12/24/2010 M3.5 INCH CHRISTIAN KY TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED THAT TRAFFICE ON ROUTE 68 WAS MOVING
AROUND 45 MPH. SOME SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS AND SOME
ROADS WERE COMPLETELY SNOW COVERED.

1130 PM SNOW 8 ESE GREENVILLE 37.16N 87.04W
12/24/2010 M4.8 INCH MUHLENBERG KY TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOWFALL REPORT FROM SPOTTER IN BEECHMONT KENTUCKY AND
REPRESENTS A 11 1/2 HOUR STORM TOTAL SINCE NOON. AIR
TEMPERATURE WAS 33 DEGREES.

1144 PM SNOW KELLY 36.95N 87.48W
12/24/2010 M4.0 INCH CHRISTIAN KY FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

STORM TOTAL DURING THE PAST EIGHT HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WAS
STILL FALLING. NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS REPORTED SINCE
NOON...WITH AT ONE INJURY REPORTED AT THE TIME OF THE
REPORT.

1159 PM SNOW EVANSVILLE 37.98N 87.54W
12/24/2010 M3.0 INCH VANDERBURGH IN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

CALENDAR DAY SNOWFALL FOR EVANSVILLE FOR DECEMBER
24...2010. OBSERVATION TAKEN AT FIRE STATION AT
EVANSVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SNOWFALL ALSO
REPRESENTS A NEW RECORD SNOWFALL FOR THIS DATE.

1159 PM SNOW PADUCAH 37.07N 88.64W
12/24/2010 M3.2 INCH MCCRACKEN KY OFFICIAL NWS OBS

CALENDAR DAY SNOWFALL FOR DECEMBER 24...2010. ALSO
REPRESENTS A RECORD SNOWFALL FOR THAT DATE FOR PADUCAH.

1203 AM SNOW NEWBURGH 37.95N 87.40W
12/25/2010 M3.2 INCH WARRICK IN TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL. ROADS SLUSHY AND SNOW COVERED.
TEMPERATURE 28 DEGREES AT TIME OF REPORT.

1212 AM SNOW 2 NE MADISONVILLE 37.36N 87.48W
12/25/2010 M2.2 INCH HOPKINS KY TRAINED SPOTTER

MAJOR ROADS PASSABLE. SIDE ROADS SLICK AND SNOW COVERED.

1222 AM SNOW OWENSBORO 37.76N 87.12W
12/25/2010 M2.2 INCH DAVIESS KY TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOWFALL TOTAL SINCE 6 PM CST.

0208 AM SNOW NEW HARMONY 38.13N 87.93W
12/25/2010 M6.0 INCH POSEY IN TRAINED SPOTTER

0208 AM SNOW POSEYVILLE 38.17N 87.78W
12/25/2010 M6.0 INCH POSEY IN TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOWFALL TOTAL SINCE THE SNOW STARTED AT 1130 AM ON
12/24/2010.

0436 AM SNOW EVANSVILLE 37.98N 87.54W
12/25/2010 M3.0 INCH VANDERBURGH IN TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORT FROM SPOTTER IN THE ANGEL MOUNDS AREA.

0444 AM SNOW MOUNT ERIE 38.51N 88.23W
12/25/2010 M5.0 INCH WAYNE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

APPROXIMATELY 2.5 INCHES FELL IN THE LAST 10 HOURS. ROADS
ARE SNOW COVERED AND SLICK.


&&

$$

K SMITH


Friday, December 24, 2010

Update: Snow continues across Western Kentucky with several areas received 2+ inches, and some with a good deal more than that. There is a band moving across Western and South Central KY now, and another one in MO/IL associated with the upper level low. Total Snow Accumulations of 2 to 6 inches seem to be plausible to wake up to tomorrow.

Heavier amounts in the local bands.
Winter WX Advisory for Murray,Hopkinsville, Elkton for this event. Around 2 inches total expected.
WPSD-TV
Jhibbs: The McCracken County Sheriff's Department asks drivers to stay off the roads unless it's an emergency. Due to snow accumulation, they are responding to an extremely high number of automobile accidents.

Merry Christmas, snow amounts look on track, some may get a little more than expected in the bands. Merry White Christmas the first since 2004 for most of West KY.

Update from the land of Christmas

The event is really starting to kick off. Snow/Sleet/Rain has all been reported across Western Kentucky. Most areas along and north of the West KY Parkway are still, or about to be snow. Areas south of that are sleet, or a rain/sleet mix, in which a change to all sleet, snow/sleet mix, and snow is likely in the next few hours.
1-3 north of the West KY Parkway, and 0.5 to 1.5 inches south of the West KY Parkway.

Band in Union/Webster County area.

Nice little band in Union/Webster county area, there could be some heavy snow in that area, so beware if your traveling around there through midday.

NWS PAH Update

.UPDATE...
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA IS NOW IN EFFECT VS.
NOT GOING INTO EFFECT AT NOON. SNOW IS SPREADING EAST MUCH MORE
RAPIDLY THAN MODEL DEPICTIONS. THE RUC IS THE CLOSEST...BUT ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS FAILED MISERABLY AT CATCHING ON TO THIS LEAD
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION.
1 TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN REPORTED WEST OF THE FARMINGTON AREA...AND THE PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO PUSH RAPIDLY EAST INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST MAY
STILL BE SUBJECT TO ADDITIONAL UPDATES...GIVEN THE MUCH FASTER
PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LEAD WAVE.

- Precipitation is depicted on radar in NW KY, and should begin to fall, if it hasn't already.

Merry Christmas Eve

This is Christmas Eve, and here are the latest thoughts. The area in the light blue is under a Winter Weather Advisory by the NWS of Paducah.

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow


- Snow starts on Christmas Eve, later in the afternoon into the evening. By Midnight everyone in Western Kentucky should start to see snow, this should continue on and off at least on Christmas Day.
- Model's are having a hard time, so I just combined what I have seen into a call map.
- Hoping for a White Christmas, and even if we don't have one Merry Christmas Anyway.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

The Night before the Night before the Night.

Since the low has trended southward, we are going to be impacted by northern stream energy. As of now a band of 1 to 3 inches is possible across Western Kentucky, with better chances in NW KY, if the EURO is right then all of the energy will go to our south. Confidence is not high in any situation as of now.

Travel issues could occur on Christmas Eve Night, Christmas Day, and if there is enough snow, maybe even the morning of the 26th. Stay Tuned.

Dreaming of a White Christmas

1 to 2 inches across all of West KY, NW Mid TN, Nashville Metro possible during Christmas. Could be even more along the Alabama border, and the Cumberland Plateau depending on how models trend, whether storms phase and how close they are to phasing, and amount of precipitation.

This could change as we are a few days away. Be careful traveling from Christmas Eve to Dec 26th period. Another update by tonight on the system

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Christmas Special update

For our Christmas Special the low has trended southward. There are concerns about dry-slotting, how much moisture will be available, and low track. Right now looks like rain changing to sleet to snow, too early for any accumulation forecast. Holiday Travelers beware, of any potential hazards that could occur from Dec 24th-26th. Only a few days till Christmas :)

Monday, December 20, 2010

Christmas System?

For the Christmas storm, I wish I had no idea was an option. Latest models have really trended south(Middle TN friends will love this), with the heaviest precip-possible snow in Middle TN. This was quite a reversal, from previous thoughts, and throws a big wrench into everything.

- Some show potential in West KY, while others to the south. So It will be interesting to watch for sure.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

morning update

Precipitation is back to rain for most everyone in West KY and Mid TN. The only exception is around Henderson/Owensboro where a little freezing rain is occurring, and mixing with rain. Most precipitation of any-type should end by 10am

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

NW KY Winter Storm Warning

Locally Heavier Ice Accumulations of around (0.25 inch) could occur in Henderson, Daviess, and Mclean Counties so a Winter Storm Warning is in effect, 0.05 to 0.15 inch of ice is possible for the rest of Western Kentucky.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
139 PM CST WED DEC 15 2010

INZ081-082-086>088-KYZ018>020-160345-
/O.UPG.KPAH.WW.Y.0010.101215T2100Z-101216T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KPAH.WS.W.0005.101215T2100Z-101216T1500Z/
GIBSON-PIKE-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...EVANSVILLE...
BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...CALHOUN
139 PM CST WED DEC 15 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
KENTUCKY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...AREAS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP BY THE
END OF THE DAY. TONIGHT...MAINLY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
SOME SLEET POSSIBLE AS WELL.

* MAIN IMPACT...AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER AMOUNTS
OF ICING POSSIBLE FROM PETERSBURG TO ROCKPORT INDIANA. SOME
SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

* OTHER IMPACTS...IMPACT TO TREES AND POWER LINES IS EXPECTED TO
BE FAIRLY LOW...BUT SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TRAVEL IMPACTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY OR
LESSER TRAVELED ROADS...AND ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN ONE QUARTER INCH OF ICE IS
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH EITHER SLEET OR SNOW. TONIGHTS EVENT SHOULD
BE MAINLY FREEZING RAIN...BUT OCCASIONAL SLEET MAY OCCUR AS WELL.
IF YOU MUST TRAVEL TONIGHT...USE EXTREME CAUTION. ROAD CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME VERY DANGEROUS.

&&

$$

update

Like many overrunning events in this part of the nation, we are on the fence. I think you should start to see a trend towards West TN, West Mid TN, and West KY of increasing precipitation with that Arkansas low. It may take another hour or two to saturate the atmosphere, so it may not begin till 4 to 5 for some people. At about 9 to 10pm for Southern portions of TN, and Midnight, 1am-3am for portions of Central Kentucky, and NE Mid TN, but it is hard to pindown the changeover. This will determine whether you have areas of .15 to .30 of ice, or just a few hundredths of ice before changing to rain.
Watch out SW KY, some icing has been reported from a freezing rain shower, back in Lake County TN from the Tennessee Weather Forum. This is heading towards Hickman/Fulton/Mayfield KY areas.

Little Ice on a Foggy Window Pane

Update

For Western KY- up to .1 inch of ice expected from 2pm-midnight. By 1am most everyone except for areas near Evansville IN area will be rain or about to change to rain. NW KY could pick up .15 inch of ice. Same for Mid TN except for those NE counties under a Winter Storm Warning that could pick up .25 or a little bit more of ice, along with minor snow/sleet accumulation.

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Some Ice in the future window.

- Precipitation starts at noon in SW KY, and by 3pm most of Western KY should get the leading edge of precipitation.
- This should start as snow briefly, then change to sleet, the change to freezing rain.

By Midnight KY/TN border counties should change to rain, and by 6am it should change to rain along Western Kentucky Parkway, and end as 9am. A little uncertainity on how quick the warm air gets there.

- As of now expect about a few hundredths to an tenth of an inch in SW KY, Purchase area, and KY/TN border area(locally more in the Southern Pennryle). Up to .10 to .19 inch of ice, with half inch of snow and sleet in NW KY closer to Evansville.

- Although Significant icing isn't expected, travel issues tomorrow afternoon/evening, overnight, and even into the morning will be hazardous.

Winter Weather Advisory coming

For Western Kentucky and NW Mid TN. A little snow or sleet to begin, then you change to freezing rain(about .10 to .20 inch of ice) then end as rain by Midnight for KY/TN border area, and NW Mid TN, end by 3 am along with the Western KY Parkway, then taper off for later Thursday Morning as rain for pretty much everyone.

Winter Weather Advisory will now be issued for all of Western Kentucky.

Dec 14th update

Details later today

Winter Storm Watch for areas from the Lakes eastward.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
411 AM CST TUE DEC 14 2010

...SIGNIFICANT ICING POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...CAUSING SNOW AND SLEET TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ010>022-141815-
/O.NEW.KPAH.WS.A.0005.101215T2100Z-101216T1500Z/
GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-CRITTENDEN-LYON-
TRIGG-CALDWELL-UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-
DAVIESS-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...
PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...
HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON
411 AM CST TUE DEC 14 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

* THIS WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE
PENNYRILE REGION OF WESTERN KENTUCKY.

* TIMING...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE WATCH
AREA WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF GLAZE
COULD ACCRUE ON EXPOSED SURFACES. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN FOR A WHILE NEAR THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE.
ALL THE PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL COME TO AN END ON THURSDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT... ROADWAYS WILL BECOME ICY BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...RESULTING IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

* OTHER IMPACTS... SOME ICING OF TREES AND POWER LINES IS
EXPECTED...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

* CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE AMOUNT AND TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION. THE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ALERT THE PUBLIC TO
THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

MY

Monday, December 13, 2010

NWS PAH Snow Map


Help explains where the snow fell during this past event. Still Watching the Wednesday-Early Thursday event. Confidence Level of 2 out of 5 for that one.

Wedensday-Thursday System

Looks like for West KY at least at this juncture is snow changing to sleet which will change to freezing rain, areas in NW KY may stay wintry the whole way through, while SW and South Central KY goes to rain before it ends.

Still some uncertainties on how much we get of each type of precipitation, or how much overall precipitation there will be. So it remains to be watched.

Overview of our Recent Winter Blast.


^^ Mile Marker 7 Paducah KY, notice the shine on the roads, is really Ice, so be careful if you have to travel.^^

^^ US 41 at the KY/TN Stateline. Looking towards Kentucky notice some slick spots on the road^^.

Overall most of Western KY received 1 to 3(locally even 4 inches of snow) for our first widespread snow of the winter. This is also the most widespread a December snowstorm has been since the great Dec. 22nd-23rd snowstorm. Blowing winds of 30 to 40MPH caused some areas to have drifts near a foot, and caused snow to blow on to the roads. Wind Chills of Zero to -10 are possible till Noon. Windchills could drop again to 0 to -5 or even -10 Tonight, with lows well into the Single Digits due to widespread snowcover

Sunday, December 12, 2010

Last storm update

For Weather: For Western Kentucky, and probably NW Mid TN soon the accumulating stuff should start to dissipate, and clear out by 8 or 9pm. Storm should end up around 1 to 3 inches across NW Mid TN and Western KY. Eastern Mid TN and the Plateau will be the focus overnight, into early tomorrow.

Advisory Update

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=pah&wwa=winter+weather+advisory
Advisory still for Western Kentucky till 6pm, so is heaviest from lakes eastward, starting to taper off West of the Lakes, minor accumulation still possible east of the lakes till 9 or 10pm.
0130 PM     SNOW             MURRAY                  36.61N 88.32W
12/12/2010 M2.0 INCH CALLOWAY KY TRAINED SPOTTER

Updated

1210 PM     SNOW             5 E FULTON              36.51N 88.79W
12/12/2010 M2.7 INCH GRAVES KY TRAINED SPOTTER

- I just measured a half inch in Hopkinsville KY just a little bit ago. Widespread
snows are spreading across Western Kentucky.

- Bands with locally heavy snow are present in Western Graves County,
and from Paducah to Calvert City to Murray KY. An heavier band may
be about to form from Union County into Hopkins and Christian County
as well.

recent Snowfall amounts

1000 AM     SNOW             WEST PADUCAH            37.08N 88.74W
12/12/2010 M1.5 INCH MCCRACKEN KY OFFICIAL NWS OBS

1030 AM SNOW 2 SW LONE OAK 37.02N 88.69W
12/12/2010 M2.0 INCH MCCRACKEN KY NWS EMPLOYEE
for West KY east of the Lakes, South Central KY, and a good deal of Middle TN, the bands are increasing, looking over at Livingston/Crittenden Counties in KY, the two along the Ohio River east of Paducah, you can see a nice band. This is part of the band that produced 4 inch snow amounts in Southern Illinois. We will need to watch that as it creeps ESE or SE. Some blowing snow bursts likely in those heavier bands.

Link for KY Transportion Department

http://511.ky.gov/kyhb/main.jsf

Conditions now

Now: Scattered bands of snow, and snow showers are moving across Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee. Blowing snow is an issue, and slick spots are developing on roads so use caution when traveling. Snow-showers and bands should continue throughout the day, and taper down to flurries by the overnight hours for most, except the Plateau.

Locally snow amounts of up to an inch could fall from Paducah to Mayfield, due to an heavy band in the area. Blowing snow is an issue.

Winter Safety Link

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/pah/pdf/winterweathersafety.pdf

Dec 12th update


Click to Enlarge

Morning roundup

Not much changed.

Throughout the morning expect snow showers to start, and continue throughout the day.

* 1 inch for most of West KY west of the Lakes, and 1-2 East of the Lakes
* Wind Chills fall to single digits today
* Wind gusts of 35 to 45mph could create blowing of snow
* Monday Morning, and Tuesday morning will feature even with limited snowcover below zero windchills.

Updated Winter WX Advisory Statement from Paducah.

000
WWUS43 KPAH 121043
WSWPAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
443 AM CST SUN DEC 12 2010

...FIRST BOUT OF REAL WINTRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TODAY...

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ003>022-121800-
/O.CON.KPAH.WW.Y.0008.101212T1200Z-101213T0000Z/
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-
MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-UNION KY-WEBSTER-
HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...
PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...MURRAY...MARION...
EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...DIXON...
MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...
GREENVILLE...ELKTON
443 AM CST SUN DEC 12 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING.

* LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY EXPAND AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHWEST INDIANA DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE PENNYRILE AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA
THIS EVENING BUT THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAY.

* WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE 20S EARLY THIS MORNING...THE
SNOW SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY ACCUMULATING ON MOST SURFACES
INCLUDING ROADS. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED GENERALLY
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MURPHYSBORO ILLINOIS TO MAYFIELD
KENTUCKY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST
INDIANA AND THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY.

* WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE SNOW BEGINS.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS 20 TO 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...WHILE GUSTS
COULD REACH AS HIGHS AS 45 MPH AT TIMES. THE STRONG WINDS MAY
RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW WHICH COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.
TRAVEL WILL BECOME POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TODAY. WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO THROUGH
THE DAY...AND WILL GENERALLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

DRS




Saturday, December 11, 2010

Last update for the night.


Click to enlarge. Will update in the morning
Breaking Weather News: A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for much of Western Kentucky, with the exception of the far SW part. 1 to 2 inches of snow is expected Sunday, along with 30-40MPH winds, which could cause blowing and drifting of snowfall, windchill values start to get very low starting Sunday.

Dec. 11th-12th event update

Overview of the Eye of December

A high bust potential for the forecast. Here is what it is starting to look like for post-frontal snow chances.
Clarksville TN: 1 inch to 1.5 inches
Nashville TN: Around 1 inch
Lawrenceburg TN: Half inch to 1 inch
Hopkinsville KY: Half inch to 1 inch
Henderson KY: Around 1 inch
Cookeville TN: Around 2 inches
Jamestown TN: 2 to 4 inches
Crossville TN: 2 to 3.5 inches
Altamont TN: 1 to 1.5 inches

These predictions are based on model runs, NWS thoughts, and past events. This is post-frontal so this has a high bust potential. A Half inch to inch of rain is expected, before we changeover to snow overnight. Far Western Kentucky(Paducah,Mayfield) look to only receive a dusting to half inch amounts

Friday, December 10, 2010

Update

- The low has trended northward.
- A little weaker, but still pretty dynamic.

* Rain fall amounts starting early tomorrow, should amount to about an half inch to an inch.
* Some snow will mix in after midnight, and into Sunday, before changing to all snow.

There is some uncertainty in to how much post-frontal moisture will remain for snow. Right now a dusting to an inch for NE parts of Western KY, and a few flurries to an half-inch for everyone else seems reasonable. With temperatures dropping, black ice could be a concern.

- Wind Chill Values Sunday Afternoon, and esp. Monday and Tuesday Morning could be an concern, with some Wind Chill values of 0 to -5 possible esp closer to Henderson/Owensboro on Monday and Tuesday Morning.

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

The 3 Low Flavors

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=60847&source=0

Shows lows for this weekend system
- Northern track is mostly rain to maybe an dusting to half inch at best at the end
- Middle Track is rain changing to maybe an dusting to half inch from Murray to Hopkinsville, with maybe an inch in Northwest KY
- Southern track is more wintry then the other two for all of Western Kentucky.

Right now will wait and see, and see where this trends.

December Ol December Weather

- It will warm to just above freezing today
- Drop down into the Teen's tonight, but Tomorrow should start the warming trend.

Friday-Sunday is interesting, a storm could impact us. For now will go with mostly rain for all of Western Kentucky that will eventually change over to Snow late Saturday Night/Sunday. How much moisture is left over when this occurs, is a big uncertainty. If a more southern track of the low verifies, and there is still some moisture on the back side of this system, then some snow accumulations are possible. If a more northern track occurs, it will be mostly rain, with only tapering light snow showers at the end.

Regardless it will get quite cold Next Week, with lows in the Single Digits and highs barely reaching the 20's a good possibility.
Since Facebook has that number game everyone is playing, here are Western Kentucky's Current Numbers.
#14 how cold it is in Hopkinsville KY, #11 how cold it is in Henderson KY, #16 how cold it is in Murray KY.

Monday, December 6, 2010

More Cold

Today was certainty a cold one, and some areas even got light snow accumulation.

Overview
* Lows in the Teen's and Highs struggling to get to Freezing today, and again Wednesday.
* Warm up Friday and Saturday out ahead of the system well into the 50's maybe warmer depending on the strength of the system.
* This system is one to watch will start as rain, but may or may not stay that way. Depending on the track rain could change to snow, or it could be rain, with only a chance of a flurry or light snow shower at the end.
* The map above is a predicted Euro Run for Next Week, this system will be air even colder than what it is this week.

- Will continue to follow the system, and the cold air.

Sunday, December 5, 2010

Slick spots in NW KY

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=pah&wwa=special%20weather%20statement

Thursday, December 2, 2010

Happy December

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_state.htm?KY,MW

Happy December
- Drought Monitor has improved(but we could still use some rain) Good thing is this winter should be wet, so by early Spring hopefully we will see the drought go bye-bye.
- Colder this week, and next week, powerful cold front should usher in some pretty chilly weather.
- Chance of rain mixing in with flurries this weekend, Minor Snow Accumulations are possible from Central Indiana, and possibility the Bluegrass area of Kentucky, but the fun stuff should miss Western Kentucky.
- A Strong -NAO could keep us on the cool-cold side for the next seven days at least. With a little moderation this weekend.