HAPPY THANKSGIVING

With mostly cloudy skies and highs in the 46-50 range.

HAPPY TURKEY DAY

Cool and maybe an isolated rain shower for Turkey Day

HAPPY TURKEY DAY IT IS TOMMOROW

Highs are in the 42-46 range with a slight chance of a rain shower, a flurry can't be ruled out in NW KY Thursday Night but that will be all. A light freeze may be possible Thanksgiving Night.

Boring Weather continues

More boring weather for us. Seasonal highs in the mid to upper 50's in the next few days.

Winter Weather Awareness review of last winter

2008-09- For West KY and Mid TN a winter of two major events and a few minor events.

A minor event on Dec 15th put down up to 3 inches of snow and sleet across Southern Hopkins and Muhlenberg County.

On Jan 27th a major ice storm occurred. Some areas were without power for up to 70 days as up to 1 to even 2 inches of ice accumulated. On the second round on Jan 28th 1 to 4 inches of snow also fell across Western KY.

Then on Feb 28th/March 1st a major snowstorm mostly missed West KY even though Fulton KY got around 4 inches. In West and Mid TN upwards to 10 inches did fall.

Minor ice to rain events occurred on December 23rd and January 5th.

Better bring the rain coats

Monday and Tuesday look to be rainy days. Might want to bring in the raincoat for both days. It appears pretty cool on Tuesday with highs possibly not getting above 50.

This rain shouldn't cause any issues but it will snap our little dry streak we have going though.

The Grinch's Thanksgiving and December Forecast

The Grinch Forecast:

"I shall with help of the Pacific and +EPO cause an intense blowtorch of record warmth during Thanksgiving and throughout December with blowtorch for the Who's in Whoville throughout the holidays. I will even make the GFS and long range models show fake 160+ hour snowstorms and historic cold snaps to get everyone thinking it will be cold and snowy, but then take it all away. All of them will fry like Turkeys out there in the heat "Evil Laughs"

Signed
The Grinch
" the heart two sizes to small"

The NWS Bullet System

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=pah&storyid=37469&source=0

A look at how the NWS will bullet the non precipitation and winter weather bulletins.

Dry and Warm Weekend

• Highs will be in the 69-72 range for West KY
• Mostly Sunny skies with clouds building in Sunday Night/Monday timeframe
• Get out and enjoy
  

Vote on the Poll over there

Happy Veterans Day

God Bless those who have served and continue to serve in our armed forces.

Your West Ky Forecast

Highs in the Low to Mid 60's across the land. With a nice little NE wind about 5 to 15MPH and grand sunny skies.

Survey Saids

Since we will have only one winter month in this decade a survey exists with the best West KY winter storms. These are just ones that impacted Western Kentucky with significance and widespreadness so some of the good Middle Tennessee Storms like 1/16/03 and 3/1/09 aren't on there.

So what storm do you have the most memories of.

NWS Winter Weather Awarness Links

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=pah&storyid=37311&source=0

Let Her Torch

75 in Henderson
75 in Hopkinsville
74 in Paducah.

Mid ti upper 70's are possible tomorrow and maybe Monday as well.

And dry to sadly I think this pattern of 60's and 70's may continue into December.

Winter Weather Awareness Week

Is From November 16th-20th.

In which Winter Weather topics will be discussed that week so stay tuned.

Again for November to make it easier to access.

Click to enlarge the colorful map.

Remember I am not a meteorologist or an expert, but instead someone interested in the weather and this el nino.

As we descend into Fall there are still several conflicting factors. Right nwo we have a west based moderate El Nino it may go back to neutral or east or even basin wide. The strength part appears to be even more confusing. Somewhere in the 1.2-1.7C range for the peak ONI is what I am expecting. As continued warming although it slowed down in July and August continues. Also the PDO appears to be near neutral. A +1.2 or +1.3C compared to a +1.7 or +1.8C or even higher can mean way different results.

My Thoughts

• A Moderate El Nino that is west based or a Low End Strong EL Nino that is west based or neutral/basin wide. Thinking (+1.25to +1.7C)
  
• Average Siberia and Eurasia Snowfall started out very unfavorable but turned favorable.
  
• A West Based El Nino should keep the Pacific Jet in check and not allow it to ruin the systems, which could allow for a West Ridge and East Trough setup at times, although at other times especially if it gets in the strong range Pacific and Subtropical air could flood the nation and make the pattern unfavorable for most everyone.
  
• Low Sunspots may lower the chances for extended winter long warmth
• Some brief and intense Arctic Outbreaks are still possible although the el nino may lessen their duration and extent. Could be a big Arctic Outbreak possible in Late Jan/Feb period due to El Nino Climatology and a favorable Pacific Pattern if a -NAO can develop.
  
• An active Subtropical Jet running across South Texas though the Gulf Coast and occasional phasing with the northern polar stream will be the main weather makers.
• The NAO is hard to predict over 2 weeks in advance but I think it should be mostly neutral with positive periods and negative periods

My Month Overlook

December: Many El Nino years and many analogs are warmer than average on December. It isn't as easy as El Nino= Warm December. Factors like the NAO and PNA are at play with this one. This is the month the subtropical jet starts to crank, but the first part of this month after the cold snaps of October and maybe late November to will first moderate. This may be a boring weather month until after the 20th. Around Christmas and New Years Eve time-frame things could get interesting with a possible cold snap and an active subtropical jet. We can always hope for a white Christmas and New Years. The Pacfic Pattern may also be unfavorable allowing for some blowtorch into the pattern if a -NAO can occur it may negate some of the warmth.

January: This is where things get interesting. The Subtropical Jet will continue to crank out the December Cold could setup in Canada than move on though into the area. There will also probably be a few days of 60's and maybe even 70's ahead of big storms that could pay visit this month. Overall especially if the nao goes negative it can possibly get down right cold at times. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few winter events, and maybe a severe wx event from West KY and across the Southeast and East Coast this month as this could be an unsettled month.

February: This appears to probably be the coldest times for West KY and the East Coast the Pacfic and Subtropical Jets may moderate the month towards the end. The Potential for the NAO to go negative and also a favorable track across the East Coast could result in the funnest times for the winter. Also many analogs and el ninos like this support a cold February.

Overall- I feel the winter potential is low esp. in the first half of December, but depending on timing either after the Winter Solstice or sometime in Early to Mid Jan the pattern should favor more of a winter pattern the Pacific may be a little more favorable and Arctic invasions should occur at times. The El Nino will be an issue and I don't think it will weaken though the year except for maybe a slight weakening maybe in Jan and Feb that may allow for a stronger north stream. The Pacfic pattern may be horrible in Dec but gets slightly better into Jan and Feb.

If the El Nino stays West Based and in the ONI Peak +1.2-+1.5 range we will have better potential for a good winter

If it goes east based or basin wide and gets above +1.6ONI I think a lot of people will be disappointed in this winter and most of West Kentucky will be lucky to get to average in snowfall. Because the Subtropical Jet will dominate the pattern and severely limit the chance for arctic cold snaps.

November 1st

It is the first of November already.

For this week expect some average to slightly below average tempartures. And some dryness. A whole week of dryness with no rain.

That is been something that is been weird the first half of the month with zonal flow looks to be uneventful with average to maybe even above average early November temps so get out there and enjoy it.