Thursday, April 30, 2009
Possible Swine Flu cases in KY
Gov. Beshear and the state of KEntucky will investigate potenail swine flue cases in Kentucky starting next week. One case involved a KY women after a trip to Mexico who returned to Bowling Green than went to La Grange GA where she got sick. Another case involves an infant in KY that is proable.
A T-storm Watch for Post number 800.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
510 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 217 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
KYC007-033-035-039-047-055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-
149-157-177-219-221-225-233-010400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0217.090430T2210Z-090501T0400Z/
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN
DAVIESS FULTON GRAVES
HENDERSON HICKMAN HOPKINS
LIVINGSTON LYON MARSHALL
MCCRACKEN MCLEAN MUHLENBERG
TODD TRIGG UNION
WEBSTER
$$
apr 30th update
Best instability has shifted south therefore the severe threat has been limited today.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Low confidence severe wx event for Thursday/Friday
Click on map to zoom in.Placement of mesolows, Several MCS clusters, and the exact placement a timing of a warm front than a cold front make a low confidence severe wx and heavy rain forecast. Tomorrow will feature a low cape day but with dewpoints into the 60's there may be enough of an unstable environment for a MCS to produce damaging winds and isolated tornadoes mostly from late morning to mid afternoon, and north of a line from Smithland to Greenville Kentucky. In West KY another low confidence day of severe weather exists Friday and Friday Night but the SPC has highlighted a slight risk for the area.
Thursday's Day 2 slight risk runs from Greenville KY to Smithland KY line north.
Swine Flu
Although no cases are confirmed in KY yet Swine flu is a worry. Even though sometimes things can be blown out of proportion and it is too early to determine whether that is a case, still be aware of swine flu. This shouldn't be anything to panic or lose a lot of sleep over, but be aware of swine flu and take the precautions that are needed in order to prevent it because it could become a major problem.
Swine Flu is a special strand of the flu virus that occurs naturally in pigs.
Symptoms often seem to be a combination of a Stomach Virus(Stomach Flu) and an normal Flu.
- wash your hands often and with detail
- cover your coughs and sneezes
- if you are sick stay home
- try to avoid contact with those that are sick
If you are sick
- stay home
- get plenty of rest
- drink plenty of fluids
- call a doctor or hospital if symptoms seem worse than a mild to a moderate flu
Swine Flu is a special strand of the flu virus that occurs naturally in pigs.
Symptoms often seem to be a combination of a Stomach Virus(Stomach Flu) and an normal Flu.
- wash your hands often and with detail
- cover your coughs and sneezes
- if you are sick stay home
- try to avoid contact with those that are sick
If you are sick
- stay home
- get plenty of rest
- drink plenty of fluids
- call a doctor or hospital if symptoms seem worse than a mild to a moderate flu
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
7 years ago April 28th 2002 Tornadoes
7 years ago a wild Morning outbreak of tornadoes occured across West KY and surrounding states.
One super cell in this outbreak produced tornadoes in SE MO, S IL, and W KY.
- the first tornado of the night started in Dixon Springs IL around 1:50am and moved into the Joy community of Livingston County after 2am. It was rated an F3 on the original Fugita scale. The worst damage was in Illinois and 1 injury occurred.
- In Crittenden County KY two tornadoes touched down between 2:30am and 2:45am. Both F1's one in Sheridan community and another Northeast of Marion with minor damage in both of them.
- The biggest tornado in West KY started in East Crittenden County touched down at 2:50am. and moved into SW Webster county hitting the town of Providence KY head on (this town would get a hit by an F1 during the Memorial Day Weekend Outbreak of 2004) 26 injuries occured in or near Providence with one critcal injury most in a moblie home park that was devasted. It went into Hopkins county and dissipated around Hanson. The worst damage was in Providence KY (webster county) and Nebo KY (north Hopkins County)
In Mid TN An F3 touches down in Rutherford County in which siginficant damage is reported 8 miles of Murfressboro TN and 20 injuries occured.
In West KY and Mid TN no tornado deaths occured out of this outbreak, but some states weren't so lucky.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/storm/aprtor.php
^^PAH info^^
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/severeweather/index.shtml
^^ Severe WX Awareness^^
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/weatherfacts.php
^^ TN fact of the day^^
One super cell in this outbreak produced tornadoes in SE MO, S IL, and W KY.
- the first tornado of the night started in Dixon Springs IL around 1:50am and moved into the Joy community of Livingston County after 2am. It was rated an F3 on the original Fugita scale. The worst damage was in Illinois and 1 injury occurred.
- In Crittenden County KY two tornadoes touched down between 2:30am and 2:45am. Both F1's one in Sheridan community and another Northeast of Marion with minor damage in both of them.
- The biggest tornado in West KY started in East Crittenden County touched down at 2:50am. and moved into SW Webster county hitting the town of Providence KY head on (this town would get a hit by an F1 during the Memorial Day Weekend Outbreak of 2004) 26 injuries occured in or near Providence with one critcal injury most in a moblie home park that was devasted. It went into Hopkins county and dissipated around Hanson. The worst damage was in Providence KY (webster county) and Nebo KY (north Hopkins County)
In Mid TN An F3 touches down in Rutherford County in which siginficant damage is reported 8 miles of Murfressboro TN and 20 injuries occured.
In West KY and Mid TN no tornado deaths occured out of this outbreak, but some states weren't so lucky.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/storm/aprtor.php
^^PAH info^^
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/severeweather/index.shtml
^^ Severe WX Awareness^^
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/weatherfacts.php
^^ TN fact of the day^^
Monday, April 27, 2009
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Wild Plains day coming.
High Risk coming out for the plains. Strong tornadoes and damaging hail storms with hail stones bigger than 4 inches in diameter are possible in the MDT and High Risk for the plains. Great VC and real life chase day for West/Central Oklahoma, South and Central Kansas, and parts of Eastern TX panhandle and NW TX.
Warm and Windy today. T-storms all week?
Warm and windy today. In matter of fact today may be the only day that doesn't contain rain chances for awhile.
Starting tomorrow several impulses will be riding along a slow moving cold front. That will give you isolated to scattered thunderstorms all week long. Some days like Tuesday it may be a washout right now some locally heavy rain is expected with no widespread severe for this weeks event.
Starting tomorrow several impulses will be riding along a slow moving cold front. That will give you isolated to scattered thunderstorms all week long. Some days like Tuesday it may be a washout right now some locally heavy rain is expected with no widespread severe for this weeks event.
Lake WInd Advisory for today in West KY
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
416 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009
...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE QUAD STATE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF A SHARPENING COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST TODAY AND IMPACT AREA LAKES AND RIVERS...
ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-261800-
/O.NEW.KPAH.LW.Y.0002.090426T1500Z-090427T0000Z/
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
416 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
CDT THIS EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
THIS EVENING AND COVERS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WESTERN
KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND INCREASE MARKEDLY AFTER 10 AM CDT...WITH THESE WINDS
EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 25 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH
WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
THOSE PERSONS PLANNING ON CANOEING OR BOATING ON AREA LAKES AND
RIVERS TODAY SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION. REGARDLESS OF YOUR
PLANS...PLAY IT SAFE AND WEAR LIFE JACKETS AND CARRY FLOTATION
DEVICES WITH YOU WHEN YOU ARE NEAR THE WATER.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AT OR BELOW 15 MPH CLOSE TO SUNSET...AROUND
7 PM.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.
FOR THE QUAD STATE REGION...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN
WINDS OF 20 MPH OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED OVER LARGE BODIES OF
WATER FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR.
FOR THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL ON KENTUCKY AND BARKLEY LAKES IN
KENTUCKY OR REND LAKE IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH WILL CARRY ALONG THE FETCH OF THESE LAKES...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN WIND SPEEDS EVEN HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. INCREASED SWELLS AND
WAVE HEIGHTS MUCH GREATER THAN NORMAL ARE SURE TO OCCUR...EVEN
DURING AN OTHERWISE SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY. IN ADDITION...CAMPERS
NEAR THE SHORELINE MAY SEE TENTS AND AWNINGS ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY
THE EXPECTED HIGH WINDS ALONG THE LAKES.
REGARDLESS OF THE LAKE OR RIVER YOU MAY BE PLANNING TRAVEL
ON...THESE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS.
$$
SMITH
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Lake Wind Advisory for West KY
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1131 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2009
ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-260000-
/O.NEW.KPAH.LW.Y.0001.090425T1631Z-090426T0000Z/
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
1131 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2009
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
BOATERS ON AREAS LAKES SHOULD BE ADVISED THAT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE QUITE STRONG TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25
MPH...WITH NUMEROUS GUSTS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH.
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE A VERY ROUGH
CHOP ON AREA LAKES. WHITE CAPS WILL BE LIKELY. SMALL BOATS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING. BOATERS SHOULD OPERATE WITH EXTREME
CAUTION.
&&
$$
Friday, April 24, 2009
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Isolated Non Severe t-storms around.
Isolated Non Severe t-storms are occurring today mostly across Caldwell, Hopkins, Trigg, Christian counties and moving into Todd and Muhlenberg. Isolated showers may be possible elsewhere. Not expected to be severe and only contain some rain and maybe some claps of thunder and lightning.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Warmth is coming
Say hello to a nice subtropical ridge.
Yes this will be the nice subtropical ridge that starting tonight and tommorow will really warm us up. Besides an isolated thunderstorm on Thursday it will also be dry. So a dry and warm weekend what more can be asked. In matter of fact we will be in the mid 80's in West KY some areas even might flurt with the upper 80's. Also summer time outbreaks of thunderstorms may occur in the Plains and northern part of the bread basket, but the Western bluegrass should be dry.
Yes this will be the nice subtropical ridge that starting tonight and tommorow will really warm us up. Besides an isolated thunderstorm on Thursday it will also be dry. So a dry and warm weekend what more can be asked. In matter of fact we will be in the mid 80's in West KY some areas even might flurt with the upper 80's. Also summer time outbreaks of thunderstorms may occur in the Plains and northern part of the bread basket, but the Western bluegrass should be dry.
Happy Earth Day
Happy Earth Day even though I don't beleive in the Global Warming hoopa that is occuring I still think that we should do more to protect the planet and make it a little more better.
It is just to bad some people have taken the ideas of Earth Day too far.
It is just to bad some people have taken the ideas of Earth Day too far.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
apr 19
Some severe possible in West Ky and Mid TN today. Some of these storms may contain large hail and maybe damaging winds a little later this afternoon. An isolated tornado also cannot be ruled out with some of these storms.
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Western Kentucky Weather wants to support Virtual Chase
http://www.theweatherboard.com/
http://www.theweatherboard.com/board/VIRTUAL-CHASETM-f56.html
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
^^ Some rules and SPC links for VC Chase Day to help you pick out a target.
Virtual Chase 2009 starts on April 20th. Runs to June 20th. Weather Board is running it and you must register there to use it. I will give you an outline of the rules of Virtual Chase and give links for it.
If you want to be involved to go that link and register for Virtual Chase. In Virtual Chase you are a storm chase that works for a company. The goal is to try to catch as much severe weather as you can. Winner is determined by points per chase. Busts where you don't get any points can really hurt you.
On the night before you will select a city or town you want to chase in by Midnight on the night before the chase day. For April 20th you must get your report by 11:59PM on the 19th to be eligible. A chase day is where on 1730Z day 2 SPC outlook a slight risk is issued. You don't have to chase in the slight risk if you don't want to you can opt for the SEE TEXT area instead. Any Slight, MDT, or High risk area you can select from.
To win prizes you must participate in at least 50% of the chases. From April 20th to June 20th in busy years it may be 25 to 30 chases in calmer years it may be only 18 or 19 chases to make 50%. Most May and June days to have at least a slight risk to choose from
Point Scale (within 25miles of your target city)
Wind or Hail- 5
Tornado (within 25)- 10
Tornado (within 5miles)- 20
The points don't stack. So if your target city is Madisonville KY and Earlington has a 1.25 inch hail report, and the northside of town within 5 miles got hit by a tornado. You would get the 20points not 25 for the hail and the tornado within 5 miles, but just 20 points for the Tornado within 5 miles.
- Pick must be in by 11:59pm or 5Z the night before, but also if you decide to move you must do it by 21Z which is by 4PM. If you wanted to move at 1pm to Madisonville KY to Henderson KY for whatever reason you must submit the move by 4pm. If you submit it by 4:01 then it is to late. If you are on the move by 4pm than you are ok and can make it to Henderson as long as you are on the move, but you can't divert or move somewhere else once you get to Henderson after 4PM.
http://www.theweatherboard.com/board/VIRTUAL-CHASETM-f56.html
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
^^ Some rules and SPC links for VC Chase Day to help you pick out a target.
Virtual Chase 2009 starts on April 20th. Runs to June 20th. Weather Board is running it and you must register there to use it. I will give you an outline of the rules of Virtual Chase and give links for it.
If you want to be involved to go that link and register for Virtual Chase. In Virtual Chase you are a storm chase that works for a company. The goal is to try to catch as much severe weather as you can. Winner is determined by points per chase. Busts where you don't get any points can really hurt you.
On the night before you will select a city or town you want to chase in by Midnight on the night before the chase day. For April 20th you must get your report by 11:59PM on the 19th to be eligible. A chase day is where on 1730Z day 2 SPC outlook a slight risk is issued. You don't have to chase in the slight risk if you don't want to you can opt for the SEE TEXT area instead. Any Slight, MDT, or High risk area you can select from.
To win prizes you must participate in at least 50% of the chases. From April 20th to June 20th in busy years it may be 25 to 30 chases in calmer years it may be only 18 or 19 chases to make 50%. Most May and June days to have at least a slight risk to choose from
Point Scale (within 25miles of your target city)
Wind or Hail- 5
Tornado (within 25)- 10
Tornado (within 5miles)- 20
The points don't stack. So if your target city is Madisonville KY and Earlington has a 1.25 inch hail report, and the northside of town within 5 miles got hit by a tornado. You would get the 20points not 25 for the hail and the tornado within 5 miles, but just 20 points for the Tornado within 5 miles.
- Pick must be in by 11:59pm or 5Z the night before, but also if you decide to move you must do it by 21Z which is by 4PM. If you wanted to move at 1pm to Madisonville KY to Henderson KY for whatever reason you must submit the move by 4pm. If you submit it by 4:01 then it is to late. If you are on the move by 4pm than you are ok and can make it to Henderson as long as you are on the move, but you can't divert or move somewhere else once you get to Henderson after 4PM.
Friday, April 17, 2009
Monday, April 13, 2009
West KY Watch for parts of West KY
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT MON APR 13 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA
SOUTHERN INDIANA
CENTRAL KENTUCKY
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA TO 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 149...WW 150...
DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING ACROSS WW THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SURFACE
COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LOW. SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH MORE DISCRETE STORMS.
OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
MORE INTENSE CORES THROUGH THE EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20025.
...EVANS
Severe storms still possible
Severe storms still possible.
This is not expected to be to the level that the Friday storms were but some storms could produce some hail and isolated tornadoes.
The instablity isn't there compared to Friday and the low level shear isn't quite there.Also there is a stalled out MCS along the Gulf Coast that is decreasing good moisture return.
There are several cons in this event.
There may be enough shear and enough instablity to cause a decent threat of mostly large hail plus cold pockets that might enhance the hail threat.
Also West KY timeframe may be more 1pm-6pm instead of 10am-3:15pm
This is not expected to be to the level that the Friday storms were but some storms could produce some hail and isolated tornadoes.
The instablity isn't there compared to Friday and the low level shear isn't quite there.Also there is a stalled out MCS along the Gulf Coast that is decreasing good moisture return.
There are several cons in this event.
There may be enough shear and enough instablity to cause a decent threat of mostly large hail plus cold pockets that might enhance the hail threat.
Also West KY timeframe may be more 1pm-6pm instead of 10am-3:15pm
Severe storms possible esp east of the lakes
Some severe storms are possible in West KY today. As a low moves into South Illinois and Central/South Indiana there will be a narrow band of dewpoints in the mid to upper 50's and 1000CAPE. This could allow for supercells to form starting along and east of the Lakes area and move into rest of West/Central KY and Mid TN by around lunchtime.
Storms could with steep lapse rates contain large hail but some storms could produce tornadoes. Due to low confidence on whether the worst storms form in West KY or Central KY only a confidence level on severe storms of 2 will be issued. But if they form they could form large hail, damaging winds, and even maybe a tornado or two.
Still watch this situation even though it is just a slight risk as I posted on the blog.
Timeframes (storm is a little faster than expected)
West KY: 10am-3:15pm
Mid TN: 11:30am-7pm
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Severe storms possible tommorow
Severe storms with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are possible tomorrow. The main time frame should be 2pm-10pm as it stands for now. Beware for possibility another round of severe storms.
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