High Winds followed by Winter WX

First things first Late Tonight but more so tomorrow a wind event is likely.

WEST KY IS IN A WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY.

Sustained winds of 20 to 25mph from the south with gusts of 40 to 45 mph are likely. Loose limbs and weak trees will come down. Since the trees are weak from a stormy 08 minor and very brief power outages may be possible. Also minor damage cant be ruled out.

Monday- (Winter WX round 1) Possible 1/10 to 1/4 inch ice. Mostly rain changing to freezing rain.
Temps. warm to the 40's and 50's than an arctic front passes and any precip changes to freezing rain due to warm air overriding swallow arctic air. Models are consistent on this round

Tuesday/Wednesday Morning. (Winter WX round 2) Possible sig. ice storm
No much on this one. Arctic Front sags south again. More moisture is injected and a potenial for siginficant ice is there. A lot of uncertainity. Will watch more and have more details Monday.

Too much uncertainity for a possible freezing rain changed to rain even on Wed Night and Thursday.

A lot of storms to watch out for in west ky.

Strong Winds/Winter Storm possible.

A complex situation is setting up in the western part of the bluegrass state. First things first enjoy a dry day with temperatures around 50ish and an increase in winds from the south.

Then as a pressure gradient enters the area tonight. A potential high wind event begins.

Starting tonight as the winds turn south an a low pressure system with an arctic cold front comes along the winds will start to pick up. It isn't going to take a lot to bring those strong winds 5000 to 7000ft to the surface. So sustained winds starting tonight though Sunday will be in the 20 to 29 MPH range with gusts as high as 40 to 49MPH. This will turn a lot of objects loose. Especially objects like loose items on porches and patios, weak tree limbs stressed by the windstorms, severe wx, and ice storms, and the droughts we have had since Summer of 2007. The IKE windstorm really weaken a lot of limbs, and those loose limbs and branches can easily fall. Even Monday and Tuesday wind gusts of 25mph may be possible but the worst is late tonight into Sunday night/very early Monday. There may even be some elevated non-severe thunderstorms around late Sunday night. Then
Then as an arctic cold front with shallow but pretty cold air moves into west KY along with storm system there is potential for rain that could change to freezing rain with maybe a little sleet mixed in along the ohio river.

As the arctic front will cross West KY sometime Monday Morning or towards the midday time frame. The high temps on Monday will be around 47-49 around NW KY and mid 50's in SW KY but those temperatures will be reached in the morning in NW KY and probably late morning/midday in KY/TN border area. In about 3 or 4 hours the temperature will drop about 20-30 degrees. By nightfall the temps. will be near or below freezing across all of West KY and any rain will changeover to freezing rain. There are uncertainties on how much precip. will be there when we go below freezing, but there is consistent model performance on the favorable EURO and NAM models at say there should be enough for some possible significant ice accumulation. The models are pretty consistent but this event is still 48 to 72 hours away. Also models do not handle shallow arctic air well, so placement on where the arctic front will be is key also.

There also the possibility of many shortwaves riding the arctic front which could be anywhere from the West KY parkway to south of Interstate 40. This could cause wintry mix situations Tuesday-Thursday but confidence is quite low.

dec 12 outlook

TN SNOW

http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,1823.810.html

good link for TN weather situation

weather update

one to two inches of snow possible in parts of Mid TN. Areas mostly south and east of nashville where snow is falling. As a cold core low moves toward the area expect some bands of snow maybe mixed with sleet to fall. This could cause hazardous travel in parts of TN tonight and tomm morning.


Be very careful out there.

Great link to discuss TN weather

http://tennesseewx.com/index.php

Active TN

Flooding, Winter Weather, and Strong Winds. Where could you find all of this at parts of Mid TN is where that is located. Southern and Eastern portions.

Flood Watch- 1 to 3 inch soaker on top of a soaked ground. Flooding is possible.
Winter WX Advisory- 1 inch of snow expected after the rain in parts of Plateau and Southern Mid TN. Winter wx advisory for Franklin, Moore, and Lincoln counties. With a dusting to an inch across the Plateau in Mid TN.
Wind- Wind gusts upwards to 30 to 40mph esp in southern mid tn and the plateau.

weather discussion

A slight precip chance tonight/

Wow December 2008 has been quite a strange weather month.

1) A surprise snow in NE AL/ parts of Mid/East TN/ N GA produces 1-3 inches on Dec 1st.
2) Several wicked cold snaps were predicted and they all failed
3) A bunch of surprise clippers hit the area to our north throughout this month.
4) This is so far the biggest surprise. San Antonio went from 85 to a sleet filled mess all in four hours. Houston and Lufkin TX are getting snow now due to a very cold core upper low system. Louisiana and Miss could see in 3 to 5 inches of snow not rain. As far as Hattiesburg MS and even 1 inch of snow and sleet as far south as Lake Charles.

So what will happen next who knows.

A slight chance of rain/sleet/freezing rain is possible for Hopkinsville and Elkton but it is very light and only a 20%

Watch out for a pot. heavy rain or even an ice event Next Monday-Wed because of an strong arctic front and an overrunning event.

Good Rain event right now.

It appears that we are looking to pick up quite a few inches of rain. We need this after a pretty dry fall occurred with the dry ground I'm not expecting widespread flash flooding or a big flood event. There could be ponding of the roads in some low lined areas.

And also Wind gusts of over 30MPH.

I have been doing finals so haven't gotten on here like I wanted to, but by this weekend and next week I will def. have more time.

dec 9th overview

some storng winds and good rain

Looks like wind gusting to 35mph tonight and more tomm.

Confidence level map comes out tonight.

Right now strong winds about confidence level of 3 and may be close to wind advisory levels.

1 to 3 inches of good rain are expected.

Dec 11st GraphicCast.

A little warmup which I believe will be shortlived and only last about a week will go on after Dec 12th. Of course with finals going on that is good because I don't really need winter wx distractions, and also a lot of people going back home from college.. But I hope we get slammed by winter weather after Dec 21st.

little clipper system

Light dusting to half inch is possible from a Paduach to Livermore KY line north in the next few hours. With flurries elsewhere due to a clipper system.

Dec 4th/5th 2002 a lookback

A raging gulf low/ noreaster type pattern came alive. It started with a major storm in the Oklahoma area into Arkansas and MO. Then West KY got hit before it effected the I-95 corridor.
The temps were cold enough to have snow, but some war air advection came in and change some of the precip to Frz rain. In matter of fact in Southwest KY most of it was ice and accumulated to an half inch to inch. In Northwest KY several inches of snow fell along with the ice.

So a great winter storm as school and business's were closed all week.

Nov 30th/ Dec 1st event is in the books.

I went aggressive and it didn't work out for West KY I think I did do well for most of Mid TN with the western edges of the Plateau like Cookeville getting a dusting, and the higher areas like Jamestown, Brydstown, Crossville, down to Sewanee getting 1 to 2 inches of snow. A dusting to half inch elsewhere west of the Plateau.

F- 59 or below
D- 60-69
C- 70-79
B-80-89
A- 90-99

Nov 30th/Dec 1st
West KY: 67\D I overestimated precip in West KY. Went too aggressive on snowfall total talking about 1 to 1.5 inches. Did mention slick roads, and not too bad considering state the models were in.
Mid TN: 80/B Call map hard to understand. Got the Plateau areas right. Could of done better in NE TN around Tri City area with crazy models did pretty good for the first event.

My own grading is just for fun though and is not meant for anything but a fun way to see how I did.

Snow in TN and AL yesterday

Quick info areas of Cumberland Plateau picked up 1 to 3 inches from a good surprise little shortwave. Lift and temps below freezing helped in the first snowfall in Middle TN. To bad west ky didnt get anything.

Plateau isnt too bad.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
334 PM CST MON DEC 1 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS EVENING FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...

.WITH MORE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AN ADDITIONAL ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH
ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT, LEAVING MANY AREAS
WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION.

TNZ011-033-034-066-079-080-020600-
/O.NEW.KOHX.WW.Y.0007.081201T2134Z-081202T0600Z/
PICKETT-OVERTON-FENTRESS-CUMBERLAND-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-
334 PM CST MON DEC 1 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT.

MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEAR
FREEZING MOST AREAS ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND WILL DROP
SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. THEREFORE, MANY PLACES ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU CAN EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH
OF SNOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT, LEAVING A TOTAL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVERALL
FROM TODAY`S WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

ROSE

weather update

Some roads are turning nasty in parts of Middle TN. Advisory went up till noon for Franklin County.Even here in Hoptown and West Ky Snow Showers are flying. It looks so pretty to bad it isn't sticking here, but in the Plateau it is and roads are treacherous because of it. Cookeville TN Even had to postpone thier Christmas parade because of hazardous conditions.

a little snow for Dec 1st.

Dusting to half inchi s expected across West KY today.

dusting to an inch

Dusting to an inch of snow expected from 10pm tonight though Tomm. Afternoon . Warm ground temps should melt some of the accumulation esp on roads so travel issues wont be a problem.

Any accumulation should be expected to be on grassy surfaces if at all. School cancellations and delays seem unlikely for most of West Ky because of warm ground temps and lack of snow getting on the roads.

first call maps

Just click to enlarge. Beware because of terrain take forecasts in TN from the Cumberland Plateau eastward with a grain of salt.

Went conservative because of the model difficulty.

thinking of Nov 30/Dec 1st

attack on India

my prayers are for the victims from the terrorist attack in India

weather update

Although there is a lot of model disagreement and moisture and temps may be a problem. There might be enough energy for pot. for light accumulations from N MS/N AL across TN and KY into IN for Nov 30th/Dec 1st but will be very conservative at this point.

Something to watch after Turkey Day.

Thanksgiving will be dry with average to slightly above temps. In the 54 to 59 range expected even the brawl on isle 9 Friday sound be dry. In West KY

Calloway county tornado 7 years ago

On Nov 24th 2001 a rotating storm struck Calloway county west of Murray. It hit a community of Harris Grove. It devastated several farmlands and leave a few people injured as it struck at around 6:30am. Luckily no deaths occurred in the strong F2 tornado.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/storm/harrisgr.php

It occurred in a very high shear and low cape setup.

Afterwords on Nov 26th a deadly tornado struck in eastern Henry County TN.

Heads up!!! Cold December?

Got a message from David Powell about confidence growing for cold.


For me I say that is growing from most everybody heck even conservative NOAA about a very nasty cold snap in the midst. This cold snap will set dangerous temperatures all the way down to the gulf and S Texas if worst case scenario occurs. Remember this is worst case scenario and why I am and a lot of people are very confident in this cold snap which could occur during most if not all of the month of December. With all cold air bottled up in Canada and Alaska and pot. for a western ridge to setup in western US along with a -nao cold air could be locked in the eastern 2/3rds of the country. Worst case or best case for cold lovers we deal with record cold across the month of December. That is just worst case if that doesn't happen we should still probably without a shadow of a doubt see some decent cold. Whether it would be glancing and somewhat intense cold shots of 2006-07 or Dec 1989 or 2000 all over again still is hard to tell. Better have plans of warming up next month because we look to at least deal with some shots of pretty chilly conditions at least. I agree with what David said. " Even though confidence is high there still is always some uncertainty, but as far as preparing for the cold I would start getting prepared better safe than sorry."